The Energy Industry Walks a Tightrope Amid Trade Wars and AI Boom

This year’s CERAWeek conference in Houston delivered a whirlwind of insights, highlighting the energy sector’s triumphs, tensions, and transformations. With the return of Donald Trump to the White House, industry leaders are both energized by his “Energy Dominance” agenda and wary of the trade chaos his policies may bring. Meanwhile, artificial intelligence (AI) and liquefied natural gas (LNG) are emerging as the dual engines driving a new era of energy demand. Here’s a breakdown of the biggest themes shaping the industry in 2025.

Trump’s Tightrope: Cheers and Fears in the Oil Patch

Oil and gas executives have long been supporters of Trump’s pro-fossil fuel stance, but his aggressive push for cheap energy is creating an unexpected headache. While his administration’s commitment to drilling and mining on public lands is welcomed, his trade policies—specifically tariffs on key imports—are rattling the sector. Canada, a major supplier of crude to the U.S., is actively exploring diversification efforts, with Alberta setting its sights on Asian and European markets. The question remains: Can energy leaders ride the Trump wave without getting caught in its undertow?

• “We’d be glad to pay the 25% tariff as long as we can get our permits done. It’s not just the time, it’s not just the cost, it’s the risk associated with having a project stop after you’ve spent hundreds of millions of dollars on the project.” — Alan Armstrong, CEO, The Williams Companies

Natural Gas: More Than a Bridge Fuel

Gone are the days when natural gas was seen as merely a transition fuel. At CERAWeek, executives made it clear: natural gas is here to stay as a cornerstone of global energy supply. With AI-driven computing and LNG exports surging, the industry is betting big on gas. However, infrastructure bottlenecks, particularly in pipeline construction, remain a critical hurdle.

• “Two years ago, energy executives and observers were chatting much more about renewable power than natural gas. Now, it’s clear that gas is a long-term solution, not just a bridge.” — Michael Smith, CEO, Freeport LNG

The Next-Gen Energy Rush: AI, Nuclear, and Grid Expansion

The AI revolution is creating an insatiable hunger for energy, forcing utilities and investors to rethink their strategies. AI-driven computing, particularly in data centers, is propelling investments into nuclear energy, with Bill Gates-backed TerraPower eyeing expansion into Texas. Grid infrastructure is another major focus, with companies like Avangrid planning $20 billion in U.S. grid upgrades to meet soaring power demands.

• “The rapid scaling of artificial intelligence data centers — much of it expected to occur in Texas — could be limited not only by power grid capacity but also a lack of blue-collar workers.” — Larry Fink, CEO, BlackRock

The Green Reality Check: Balancing Growth with Sustainability

While carbon capture and storage (CCS) gained significant traction at CERAWeek, sustainable aviation fuel (SAF) continues to lag behind. United Airlines CEO Scott Kirby acknowledged that the airline industry is falling short of SAF targets, requiring more investment and regulatory support. Energy majors are shifting their sustainability strategies, choosing to supplement fossil fuel investments with lower-carbon alternatives rather than committing to a full transition.

• “The airline industry is not on track to meet previously promised sustainable aviation fuel goals. We need increased investments and legislation changes to make it happen.” — Scott Kirby, CEO, United Airlines

Policy Shakeups: The Federal Government’s New Role in Energy Development

U.S. Interior Secretary Doug Burgum made waves by pledging federal intervention in contested pipeline projects, framing federal lands as “assets worth trillions” on America’s balance sheet. His remarks suggest a more aggressive federal role in permitting and development, a move that could accelerate projects but also stir controversy.

• “I think you can easily get rid of 20 or 30% of the regulation and just get back to the organizations and figure out who’s the one person that says yes or no, right, as opposed to 13 [people].” — Doug Burgum, U.S. Secretary of the Interior

The Road Ahead: Volatility and Opportunity

From Exxon’s ambitious production growth plans to Chevron’s strategic sourcing of crude from Mexico and the Middle East, energy giants are adapting to the shifting geopolitical and economic landscape. With LNG demand rising and the AI-driven power surge redefining consumption patterns, the future of energy is both volatile and full of opportunity.

As CERAWeek 2025 comes to a close, one thing is clear: the energy industry is standing at a crossroads. Whether it can balance economic expansion, technological innovation, and environmental responsibility remains the defining challenge of the decade. One thing’s for certain—change is coming, and those who adapt will lead the way.